In May I stood for re-election to the City of Edinburgh Council. I didn't make the cut for the fourth seat in the multi-member Leith Walk ward. These are my thoughts on that result and how it came about.
Elections are complex events with none more so than Scottish
Council elections using single transferable vote to elect 3 or 4 councillors
per ward.
As a recent unsuccessful candidate, I perhaps have more to
complain about. I ran in a 4 member ward as one of two SNP candidates. It was a
ward where the SNP had successfully achieved the goal of electing two
councillors at the previous elections in 2017. There is strong SNP support in the ward that would indicate that two SNP candidates could be elected. We also had two active and responsive incumbent councillors standing for re-election. It should have been a forgone conclusion,
but it wasn’t.
I missed out at the final stage when a wave of transfers
from the unsuccessful Conservative candidate swept the LibDem candidate to
success, winning the fourth seat.
What were the reasons for my loss? The easy answer would be to
just blame the alphabet. I’ve featured in two newspaper articles that have
followed that line. The second article included quotes from me which backed up
the hypothesis that the alphabet was to blame. Taking that line makes me sound a bitter loser and downgrades the quality of my running mate Amy McNeese-Mechan
who thoroughly deserves her seat on the Council based on the work she has done
for the Leith Walk ward since her election in 2017. I did outline to the journalist the other factors that came into play but his starting point was the alphabet and I guess the other significant factors were seen as peripheral and therefore unimportant.
So what were the other factors that affected the outcome?
The SNP have recently taken the highest share of first
preference votes in the Leith Walk ward with the Greens not too far behind
making those two parties the dominant players in the ward elections. They are
most likely to get their candidates successfully elected. The Greens got their
candidate Susan Rae elected comfortably at the first stage and I benefitted
from transfers. Amy McNeese-Mechan was also elected at the first stage and
again I benefitted from transfers. These transfers put me back into play
pushing me into fourth place. I remained there until the wave of Conservative
transfers secured the fourth seat for the LibDem candidate.
While any comparison of the 2022 result with the 2017 result
does show that the alphabet bias was more pronounced this time around the
reasons are likely to be a complex mix of factors.
If it wasn’t entirely down to the alphabet, then what were
the other factors? The messaging of the campaign is important – did our
campaign get the ‘how to vote for an SNP team’ message out clearly to our
supporters and those inclined to vote SNP? How strong was the appeal for second preferences? Did we have right mix of leaflets
and letters to communicate that message effectively? Did we get the ward split
wrong for this election? A different ratio or split may have worked better. Did
our vote share hold up? There was a drop of 5.37% in the SNP share in Leith Walk
this time which could be as a result of the quality of our campaign, weariness of voters especially with a major infrastructure project Edinburgh Trams running through the heart of the ward, even the number of candidates standing - there were 12 the second highest in the city. The drop in vote share will have deflated the votes for both of our candidates and is
significant as the lower the overall vote share the less likely getting two candidates elected becomes. The drop in vote share may well have been the key factor as had the SNP vote share maintained 2017 levels it is possible that my first preference total may have been above the LibDem candidate and my running mate would have had more transfers to share with me. Could the sequence of candidates being elected or excluded have
changed to result? Maybe, certainly the Conservative transfers to LibDem proved
decisive. A higher turnout may (there was a 3.1% drop in turnout in the ward in 2022) have
given more helpful transfers from Green and SNP voters that would have pushed me across the line. In the end STV multi-member elections come down to percentages and shares of percentages. You can follow the result here (thanks to Indylive and Democracy Club).
In the end I was just not successful in my bid to be
re-elected. There is risk in every election, and it is a risk every candidate must
bear. I accept the outcome. I wish all of the successfully elected councillors
for Leith Walk the very best for the next five years representing a varied and
busy ward.
2022 full results https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/downloads/download/15127/ward-12-leith-walk-2022-election-results
Ballot Box Scotland published their breakdown here https://ballotbox.scot/le22/edinburgh#ward12
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