This article was prompted by trying to process the announcement from Nicola Sturgeon that she was standing down as First Minister of Scotland and SNP Leader. It doesn't have the answers and is a personal view based on my experience as an SNP member, organiser and veteran of the 2012-2014 Independence referendum campaign.
The problem for the SNP and the independence movement is
not necessarily the intransigence of Westminster over consent for a section 30
order and a new independence referendum but actually in continually
seeking of a referendum when the answer is always no. As Labour leader Keir
Starmer has also backed the no section 30 order mantra the road to independence via a referendum appears narrowed to the point of being unpassable. Increasingly shrill elements of the independence movement attack the SNP, its government and increasingly the First Minister for this impasse. The target should be the Tories and Labours denial of democracy.
The campaign for independence has become the
campaign to get a referendum with the hope and vision of an independence
prospectus playing second fiddle. Even when that independence vision was talked about
it seemed to obsess on things like the currency and independent Scotland would
use or split on whether to re-join the EU or apply to EFTA (the latter option is
a minority view but a vocal one). By focussing on these issues divisions are created rather than consensus.
There is a lack of a forum to create that consensus as the Scottish
Independence Convention seemed to go mute after staging a huge meeting in the
Edinburgh Usher Hall which should have resulted in the establishment of a means
to progress the wider independence campaign. That didn’t happen despite a multiplicity of groups and organisations advocating for an independent Scotland some of which were set up to try and fill that vacuum.
Maybe now is time to put aside obsession with getting a
referendum and focus on better governance for Scotland and importantly the
furtherance of Scottish interests. That can be seen widely as the Scotland that
independence can build but can also be seen in the Scotland that home-rule can
build. We’ve seen some of that with the creation of Social Security Scotland
and changing the narrative around benefits; it is also evident in the changes
to the tax system to redistribute wealth in Scotland. Both come from recently
accrued powers from Westminster. Other areas where creating a different
Scotland could be realised are in the area of Social Care where though work has
started there are contentious issues that need to be resolved and if they can
be worked through Scotland can again show that solutions made here in our
nation can make Scotland better. Other bold areas could include reform of local
government – our councils need autonomy starting with the way they are funded.
Empowering local government and trusting them to make good decisions should be
the sign of a confident national government. Decentralising decision making
should be the watchword and one that could go further within local government
itself.
This process of nation building is something that can build
confidence towards independence as electors see positive changes that affect
their lives. If a good governance can produce tangibly good outcomes with a devolved Parliament then confidence can be built in the ability of an independent Scotland can do even better.
Throughout the 1980s and 1990s and into the early terms of
the Scottish Parliament the fault line in the SNP was one of gradualist vs
fundamentalist. Put simply the gradualist method believe building support and powers in the Scottish Parliament could see all but independence
achieved while the fundamentalist line was complete independence achieved in an
instant. The misguided 1992 General Election slogan ‘Free by 93’ was fundamentalist hubris and while it raised aspirations at least for those in
the SNP it failed miserably at the polls. Instant-ism is not a great political philosophy. The SNP independence strategy in the 1990s (and before) was to win a majority of Westminster seats and then negotiate independence.
That changed with the coming of the Scottish Parliament and the SNP adopted a formal policy of holding a referendum on independence following an election victory. That
strategy was one of gradualism. Voters could vote for the SNP in an election without committing to supporting independence. As a political strategy it worked - SNP support rose to the point where after winning the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections the UK Government recognised the legitimacy of the call for a referendum and permission was granted. If there was a flaw in the SNP policy it was that there was no right for the Scottish Parliament to call a referendum again without asking for permission from the UK Government. More recently an independence referendum has
been seen almost as an article of faith for the
independence movement. The IndyRef2 syndrome that needed a date before serious campaigning could start. At times it felt like a referendum was needed even if
the outcome was rejection.
There is a real danger that if another independence
referendum is lost the independence project will be derailed indefinitely. You only need
to look at present day Quebec to see a becalmed independence movement. The Quebec
sovereigntist feeling still exists – indeed three of the parties elected to the National Assembly would call themselves sovereigntists and currently they are in the majority but talk of a
fresh referendum on Quebec independence is muted. In the most recent parliamentary by-election the Quebec Liberals attacked Quebec Solidaire for having members who support a fresh referendum. The latter won the by-election but there is so far no re-ignition of the sovereignty debate.
We are in an uncertain time for our own independence
movement. We are dealing with a UK Tory government that practises a muscular
unionism to interfere in Scotland. They have made it clear that a referendum
will not be permitted and Labour as putative government in waiting echo
that.
Some argue that there is a glimmer of hope in Gordon Brown's 'Commission on the UK's Future' and it's talk of strengthening Scotland's economic powers though it is all couched in terms of co-operation and mutual benefit so may not offer the autonomy Scotland needs over various matters such as increased control of welfare or immigration to name two. If Labour do win the next UK General Election the SNP should hold them to deliver on the recommendations as they affect Scotland and push for further devolution. The question for Labour is how much they are willing to give. The other side of that may be based on whether they make any inroads in terms of winning seats from the SNP in Scotland. Though even if they do win more seats there is no evidence that a Devo-Max Labour exists anymore.
That is why it is important to have strong and cohesive SNP group of MPs at Westminster and it will be as important if not even more so if and when Labour takes over from the Conservatives. It is therefore important that we do not lose what we've built and work now to empower a new case for independence. The responsibility for getting that out to the public will be with the grassroots of the party - no more waiting for the starting gun to be fired or a date to be set. The case for the powerful government that independence can deliver needs to be communicated door to door. It is those conversations that will identify both the appetite for independence and the issues that actually concern voters so that they can be addressed. If as a party the SNP can make progress on that surely the wider independence movement will shake off the cobwebs and get out there with their vision of an independent Scotland as well. There were many strands in the 2014 independence campaign and there is a need to energise that multiplicity again.
The new SNP leader will have to grapple with these issues and
chart a way forward that builds on what autonomy Scotland has, seeks to further that
autonomy, stands up for Scotland's interests and watches the political weather for the opportunity to get to independence.
