Quebec, a realignment of the political landscape?

The recent National Election in Quebec has started a realignment of the politics of identity and sovereignty. That realignment has also seen the common thread of the modern political world - the polarisation of ideology and the rise of both radical left voices and anti immigration platforms.

It is 23 years since the last independence referendum in Quebec and though the possibility of a fresh referendum seems unlikely almost to the point of non existent there are perhaps sign that in the realignment of Quebec politics a fresh self determination seed is being sown that may, in time flower and produce a new modern sovereigntist demand that realises afresh the dreams so narrowly lost a generation ago.

The Quebec elections of 1st October produced a huge shake-up to the political landscape of the nation. For 50 years the leadership of Quebec had pivoted between the Liberal Party of Quebec (the unionists) and the Parti Quebecois (the nationalists). various other minor parties had come and gone in the interim but nothing had broken that duality of political outcomes. Until now that is.

The election broke that mould and there may be no going back. Coalition Avenir de Québec (CAQ) a party formed and led by Francois Legault, himself a former PQ cabinet member is, on the face of it, a nationalist party. However it is avowedly not promising any future referendum on an independent Quebec. CAQ won 74 seats in the National Assembly - a landslide which saw them beat the incumbent Liberals comprehensively. The CAQ surge which had been threatened at previous elections came at the expense of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) who on the day were reduced to a humiliating 9 seats (later rising to 10 through a recount). CAQ also took a strong stance on immigration promising to reduce the number of people coming to Quebec which in the modern age sadly struck a chord with a large chunk of the electorate. 

As the counterpoint to the rise of CAQ the green socialist party Quebec Solidaire (QS) saw a trebling of its seats in the National Assembly to 10 (equal to the PQ). Quebec Solidaire is also a sovereigntist party and is open about independence being best for the future of Quebec. QS have tapped in to the anti neoliberal thread of modern politics to connect with a younger outward looking electorate looking for real change and welcoming of others.

Quebec Solidaire recently entered into a merger with the smaller Option Nationale (ON) a sovereigntist party positioned to the left and also finding support among younger voters. ON joined QS as a platform allowing two of its best performers, its leader Sol Zanetti and artist Catherine Dorion to stand and win in neighbouring seats in Quebec City. The energy within QS at this time must be strong with the success and the engagement of so many more electors looking for something more radical than the centre right neoliberal offered by CAQ and the Liberals. They put forward a platform of hope for the future. Their leader Manon Masse played the election well and comes over as a non politician while getting the politics of the merger and positioning of QS to make the breakthroughs they were looking for. The test for QS in the future will be to break out of the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City and grow their base.

What of PQ? True they have suffered a huge setback reduced to 10 seats and not qualifying for official recognition in the National Assembly. The party has had a tumultuous time since it was last in power in Quebec as a minority administration, afraid of the independence question and vulnerable to the rise of CAQ. Following its defeat four years ago it changed leaders and veteran Pauline Marois exited with businessman Pierre Karl Peladeau briefly taking over the effect of which seemed to reposition PQ on the right before it then shifted toward the centre left under its next leader Jean-Francois Lisee. He's gone now along with many of their experienced politicians. However if PQ is to be reborn perhaps it needed a cathartic event like this meltdown to shake away any complacency. Recent research into who votes for the PQ showed that the party base support was still the baby-boomers that had supported it from its beginnings and it was failing to attract younger voters. Some analysts said that if the party continued on the trajectory indicated by the research it would eventually cease to exist. However as the PQ deals with its defeat in the election and setback for it as a party it may find that it has some of the younger members it needs to redefine and rebuild. Younger members were successfully elected - Catherine Fournier (who some in Scotland will know from her visit during Indyref) and the victor of the recount Meganne Perry Melancon. The future of PQ could be theirs as a generational shift and a redefinition of their aims for the 21st century is probably exactly what the party needs. It needs to see itself as the future rather than through the prism of the past.

The future of Quebec will be interesting to watch but it is worth saying from a Scottish perspective that in Quebec the aftermath of the failed second referendum has cast a long shadow over the sovereigntist movement, one that perhaps the independence movement here needs to keep in mind when demands arise for an immediate referendum. The cost for calling it wrong could be incalculable.

Parti Quebecois heading for minority government? Polls,predictions and social media in the Quebec Provincial Election 2012

 Is the Quebec sovereignty question about to be reignited with a Parti Quebecois victory in Quebec's provincial elections? The answer is not clear at present. PQ Leader Pauline Marois made a plea at the weekend for an outright victory, saying a minority government would not allow the policies she stands for to be fully implemented. Code for a referendum on Quebec's future.

The polls are tight showing Marois's PQ ahead in the latest poll on 33% but with Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) rising to 28% (from 12% at the start of the campaign) and the incumbent Liberals sliding to 27%. So it's nip and tuck at the top and all to play for as the contest enters its final week.

It would appear that the final result is the PQ's to lose though most pollsters and commentators seems to think the PQ will emerge the biggest party and form a minority government perhaps with support from the sovereigntist and leftist Quebec Solidaire.  

The PQ and the Liberals are the big beasts of Quebec elections with power switching between them regularly over the past few decades. The Liberals are in trouble with the taint of corruption over government contracts surrounding them. Their leader Jean Charest seems set to lose his riding (constituency). He’s a mercurial character who as a Federal Tory withstood the meltdown of Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives in 1993. Ironically that political abyss for the Conservatives came about in the wake of the failure of former PM Brian Mulroney’s Meech Lake agreement that saw a huge rise in nationalist support in Quebec with the Bloc Quebecois being formed to contest Federal Elections (indeed they did so well they formed the official opposition in Ottawa) and the return of Parti Quebecois to power in Quebec’s National Parliament and the subsequent sovereignty referendum of 1995.

Marois has declared that the PQ would seek a fresh referendum if successful on September 4^th. That’s why she doesn’t want a minority government as it would weaken the mandate.

However given the circumstances of the election – the Liberals corruption allegations and the growth in support for Coalition Avenir Quebec who, though led by former PQ minister Francois Legault, have distanced themselves from the sovereignty question it may be that minority government is what Quebec faces come September 5th.

While a majority is what the PQ say they are looking for a period in minority may actually be the best option. Marois  may do worse that share a conversation with Alex Salmond Scotland’s First Minister who lead the ScottishNational Party (SNP) to minority government in 2007 shelving a referendum on Scottish Independence on the way only to win an outright victory in 2011 embarking on a referendum campaign.

It could be that steady as she goes could be the best strategy for the PQ and they play the longer game gaining support of Quebecers whether Francophone, Anglophone or Allophone with competent government first then winning a majority to pursue an independent Quebec. 

Social Media in the #Quebecelection

Everyone says social media is an important tool in elections these days and I've had a quick glance at the followers of the parties contesting the Quebec election.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the PQ top both the Facebook and Twitter counts with 62766 and 19093 respectively and surprisingly the Liberals on only 6253 FB and 10033 on twitter. CAQ come in on 8105 FB and 10998 twitter with the left/green/feminist Quebec Solidaire on an impressive 17343 FB and 19122 twitter.

The fledgling sovereigntist Option Nationale sit on 23454 FB and 11435 twitter with the Parti Vert du Quebec (Greens) on 1648 FB and 1979 twitter.

So perhaps no surprise PQ are solid front runners. The Liberals are out of favour so maybe that is reflected in their poor showing. The surprise is that CAQ are doing so poorly on social media despite the surge in support evident in the polls. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have impressive totals though neither seem to be on the verge of any real breakthough electorally according to the polls. Their social media presence could be down to the wave of student unrest in Quebec at present - something to do with student finance and tuition fees - that has not been handled well by either Charest, Legault or Marois. 

Other coverage of the Quebec elections:
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/international/canada-provincial-victory-set-to-resurrect-quebec-independence-movement-1-2493422

http://news.nationalpost.com/tag/quebec-election-2012/

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/quebecvotes/index.html

http://leithnotes.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/does-victory-for-pq-signal-return-of.html