The recent National Election in Quebec has started a realignment of the politics of identity and sovereignty. That realignment has also seen the common thread of the modern political world - the polarisation of ideology and the rise of both radical left voices and anti immigration platforms.
It is 23 years since the last independence referendum in Quebec and though the possibility of a fresh referendum seems unlikely almost to the point of non existent there are perhaps sign that in the realignment of Quebec politics a fresh self determination seed is being sown that may, in time flower and produce a new modern sovereigntist demand that realises afresh the dreams so narrowly lost a generation ago.
The Quebec elections of 1st October produced a huge shake-up to the political landscape of the nation. For 50 years the leadership of Quebec had pivoted between the Liberal Party of Quebec (the unionists) and the Parti Quebecois (the nationalists). various other minor parties had come and gone in the interim but nothing had broken that duality of political outcomes. Until now that is.
The election broke that mould and there may be no going back. Coalition Avenir de Québec (CAQ) a party formed and led by Francois Legault, himself a former PQ cabinet member is, on the face of it, a nationalist party. However it is avowedly not promising any future referendum on an independent Quebec. CAQ won 74 seats in the National Assembly - a landslide which saw them beat the incumbent Liberals comprehensively. The CAQ surge which had been threatened at previous elections came at the expense of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) who on the day were reduced to a humiliating 9 seats (later rising to 10 through a recount). CAQ also took a strong stance on immigration promising to reduce the number of people coming to Quebec which in the modern age sadly struck a chord with a large chunk of the electorate.
As the counterpoint to the rise of CAQ the green socialist party Quebec Solidaire (QS) saw a trebling of its seats in the National Assembly to 10 (equal to the PQ). Quebec Solidaire is also a sovereigntist party and is open about independence being best for the future of Quebec. QS have tapped in to the anti neoliberal thread of modern politics to connect with a younger outward looking electorate looking for real change and welcoming of others.
Quebec Solidaire recently entered into a merger with the smaller Option Nationale (ON) a sovereigntist party positioned to the left and also finding support among younger voters. ON joined QS as a platform allowing two of its best performers, its leader Sol Zanetti and artist Catherine Dorion to stand and win in neighbouring seats in Quebec City. The energy within QS at this time must be strong with the success and the engagement of so many more electors looking for something more radical than the centre right neoliberal offered by CAQ and the Liberals. They put forward a platform of hope for the future. Their leader Manon Masse played the election well and comes over as a non politician while getting the politics of the merger and positioning of QS to make the breakthroughs they were looking for. The test for QS in the future will be to break out of the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City and grow their base.
What of PQ? True they have suffered a huge setback reduced to 10 seats and not qualifying for official recognition in the National Assembly. The party has had a tumultuous time since it was last in power in Quebec as a minority administration, afraid of the independence question and vulnerable to the rise of CAQ. Following its defeat four years ago it changed leaders and veteran Pauline Marois exited with businessman Pierre Karl Peladeau briefly taking over the effect of which seemed to reposition PQ on the right before it then shifted toward the centre left under its next leader Jean-Francois Lisee. He's gone now along with many of their experienced politicians. However if PQ is to be reborn perhaps it needed a cathartic event like this meltdown to shake away any complacency. Recent research into who votes for the PQ showed that the party base support was still the baby-boomers that had supported it from its beginnings and it was failing to attract younger voters. Some analysts said that if the party continued on the trajectory indicated by the research it would eventually cease to exist. However as the PQ deals with its defeat in the election and setback for it as a party it may find that it has some of the younger members it needs to redefine and rebuild. Younger members were successfully elected - Catherine Fournier (who some in Scotland will know from her visit during Indyref) and the victor of the recount Meganne Perry Melancon. The future of PQ could be theirs as a generational shift and a redefinition of their aims for the 21st century is probably exactly what the party needs. It needs to see itself as the future rather than through the prism of the past.
The future of Quebec will be interesting to watch but it is worth saying from a Scottish perspective that in Quebec the aftermath of the failed second referendum has cast a long shadow over the sovereigntist movement, one that perhaps the independence movement here needs to keep in mind when demands arise for an immediate referendum. The cost for calling it wrong could be incalculable.
Showing posts with label Parti Quebecois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Parti Quebecois. Show all posts
Tuesday, 16 October 2018
Tuesday, 8 April 2014
Quebec: has the sovereignty movement hit the buffers?
The dust has hardly settled on the Quebec elections and commentators in Canada and Scotland are already pronouncing the Quebecois dream of an independent francophone nation in North America well and truly dead.
Here is Scotland it is largely overjoyed Better Together supporters drawing lazy comparisons in order the provide cheap ammunition in their war against the momentum of the Yes campaign. In anglophone Canada the PQ defeat has been widely welcomed as a vote for the 'status quo' and federal Canada. The triumphalism in most Toronto based press is palpable and just a little overblown.
In Quebec the story is, in reality, just a little more complicated. True the main sovereignty party the Parti Quebecois (PQ) have been unceremoniously ditched by the electorate and replaced by a Liberal Party which itself was rejected just 18 short months ago following a series of funding and corruption scandals that are subject to an ongoing public inquiry Astonishing really that a party whose links with allegations of corruption of its politicians and government officials could be forgiven so quickly.
When PQ leader Pauline Marois dissolved the National Assembly she was in a strong position - ahead in the polls and widely tipped to win the majority she was seeking to enact her program. It was the blocking of the PQ agenda by the Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) which convinced Marois that with the polls on her side she should call a snap election.
There's a back story that's been missed by most of the commentators so far and that is the the sovereignty movement has been fractured for the past few years. When the PQ were in opposition before 2012 there were two splits that lead to breakaway parties. One was Francois Legault a former PQ front bencher who left and formed CAQ. His new party is soft on the sovereignty issue and must be pleased to see their share of seats move up in the outcome of the elections. The other splinter was Jean-Martin Aussant another former PQ front bencher who set up the small but energetic Option Nationale (ON) to ply a more strongly sovereigntist line. Aussant was an MNA (Member of the National Assembly) when he resigned from the PQ and set up ON but lost his seat in 2012 and stood down as leader in 2013. ON under the leadership of Sol Zanetti pushed a strong line this time round using the slogan 'Reveiller du courage!' and 'Independence'. Their most creditable performance this time was in Taschereau a tight PQ/Liberal marginal where Catherine Dorion resisted the squeeze on votes. There is also the left party Quebec Solidaire (QS) who seemed to play down the sovereignty message this time in favour of social justice - it paid off as the they held their previous two seats and added a third. It is also worth noting the the PQ, ON and QS all gained from the 'Maple Spring' student unrest in Quebec in 2011/12.
So what of 2014? Well the PQ had to some extent weathered the controversy around the 'Charter of Values' which sought to proscribe public servants wearing religious symbols (an issue not uncommon to several European countries) but what appears to blown the election seems to be what PQ thought would be their game changer (in a good way) - the recruiting of Quebecor media mogul Pierre Karl Peladeau to run as a candidate. When he made a televised speech in his riding saying effectively Quebec should be independent the comments were pounced on by the media (the anglophone media in particular), and the opposition. The question of a new referendum then became the focus of the election and this was immediately reflected in the polls. What at the outset looked like bold leadership in calling an election when PQ were ahead in the polls quickly turned into a political and personal disaster for Marois with her party losing seats hers included and the Liberals gaining a solid majority.
The problem on the issue of sovereignty was the lack of clarity of what the PQ plans were. It may be true that large sections of the Quebec electorate are happy enough for the PQ to rule Quebec but are less ready to embrace another referendum. Marois and the PQ failed to work out their strategy on the issue in a way that could have convinced the electorate enough to trust them with another period in government. Unlike the SNP the PQ found minority government difficult, failing to achieve support for their policies and therefore unlike the SNP failed to provide the electorate the confidence in their competence in government that in Scotland allowed the SNP to build a wide enough base to achieve a majority. The other advantage that the SNP has had is its clear stance on the referendum issue - indeed the the promise of a referendum actually seemed to diffuse the independence issue in Scottish politics as the issue itself would not be decided in one election but some time after and the voters would have that choice. Lack of clarity on the referendum process and even if there would be a referendum created enough uncertainty that when the focus turned to that the wheels came of the PQ campaign bus.
Where does that leave the PQ and the sovereignty issue? Becalmed but not over would be my prediction. PQ will regroup and choose a new leader. They will draw breath and consider their platform carefully for future elections. They still have a solid group of 30 in the National Assembly as the official opposition. The other parties will reflect too - ON has already stated they will focus on developing their Independence platform. The sovereignty dream may have led to a rude awakening but the wake up call may be just what the sovereignty movement needs to find focus.
Here is Scotland it is largely overjoyed Better Together supporters drawing lazy comparisons in order the provide cheap ammunition in their war against the momentum of the Yes campaign. In anglophone Canada the PQ defeat has been widely welcomed as a vote for the 'status quo' and federal Canada. The triumphalism in most Toronto based press is palpable and just a little overblown.
In Quebec the story is, in reality, just a little more complicated. True the main sovereignty party the Parti Quebecois (PQ) have been unceremoniously ditched by the electorate and replaced by a Liberal Party which itself was rejected just 18 short months ago following a series of funding and corruption scandals that are subject to an ongoing public inquiry Astonishing really that a party whose links with allegations of corruption of its politicians and government officials could be forgiven so quickly.
When PQ leader Pauline Marois dissolved the National Assembly she was in a strong position - ahead in the polls and widely tipped to win the majority she was seeking to enact her program. It was the blocking of the PQ agenda by the Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) which convinced Marois that with the polls on her side she should call a snap election.
There's a back story that's been missed by most of the commentators so far and that is the the sovereignty movement has been fractured for the past few years. When the PQ were in opposition before 2012 there were two splits that lead to breakaway parties. One was Francois Legault a former PQ front bencher who left and formed CAQ. His new party is soft on the sovereignty issue and must be pleased to see their share of seats move up in the outcome of the elections. The other splinter was Jean-Martin Aussant another former PQ front bencher who set up the small but energetic Option Nationale (ON) to ply a more strongly sovereigntist line. Aussant was an MNA (Member of the National Assembly) when he resigned from the PQ and set up ON but lost his seat in 2012 and stood down as leader in 2013. ON under the leadership of Sol Zanetti pushed a strong line this time round using the slogan 'Reveiller du courage!' and 'Independence'. Their most creditable performance this time was in Taschereau a tight PQ/Liberal marginal where Catherine Dorion resisted the squeeze on votes. There is also the left party Quebec Solidaire (QS) who seemed to play down the sovereignty message this time in favour of social justice - it paid off as the they held their previous two seats and added a third. It is also worth noting the the PQ, ON and QS all gained from the 'Maple Spring' student unrest in Quebec in 2011/12.
So what of 2014? Well the PQ had to some extent weathered the controversy around the 'Charter of Values' which sought to proscribe public servants wearing religious symbols (an issue not uncommon to several European countries) but what appears to blown the election seems to be what PQ thought would be their game changer (in a good way) - the recruiting of Quebecor media mogul Pierre Karl Peladeau to run as a candidate. When he made a televised speech in his riding saying effectively Quebec should be independent the comments were pounced on by the media (the anglophone media in particular), and the opposition. The question of a new referendum then became the focus of the election and this was immediately reflected in the polls. What at the outset looked like bold leadership in calling an election when PQ were ahead in the polls quickly turned into a political and personal disaster for Marois with her party losing seats hers included and the Liberals gaining a solid majority.
The problem on the issue of sovereignty was the lack of clarity of what the PQ plans were. It may be true that large sections of the Quebec electorate are happy enough for the PQ to rule Quebec but are less ready to embrace another referendum. Marois and the PQ failed to work out their strategy on the issue in a way that could have convinced the electorate enough to trust them with another period in government. Unlike the SNP the PQ found minority government difficult, failing to achieve support for their policies and therefore unlike the SNP failed to provide the electorate the confidence in their competence in government that in Scotland allowed the SNP to build a wide enough base to achieve a majority. The other advantage that the SNP has had is its clear stance on the referendum issue - indeed the the promise of a referendum actually seemed to diffuse the independence issue in Scottish politics as the issue itself would not be decided in one election but some time after and the voters would have that choice. Lack of clarity on the referendum process and even if there would be a referendum created enough uncertainty that when the focus turned to that the wheels came of the PQ campaign bus.
Where does that leave the PQ and the sovereignty issue? Becalmed but not over would be my prediction. PQ will regroup and choose a new leader. They will draw breath and consider their platform carefully for future elections. They still have a solid group of 30 in the National Assembly as the official opposition. The other parties will reflect too - ON has already stated they will focus on developing their Independence platform. The sovereignty dream may have led to a rude awakening but the wake up call may be just what the sovereignty movement needs to find focus.
Thursday, 30 August 2012
PQ set for majority?
The latest polls in the increasingly bitter Quebec 2012 election show Parti Quebecois support holding up and suggests they may just achieve the majority they seek.
If they do succeed then the march to a fresh referendum on Quebec independence will be started.
However there are a few days campaigning to go and with PQ sitting on 33% in the latest poll followed by the incumbent Liberals on 28% and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) on 27% there is all to play for.
Reports continue to say that Liberal Leader Jean Charest is vulnerable in his home riding. This may raise a question of whether the Liberals standing in the polls is higher than it will be on polling day?
Perhaps when Quebeckers go to the poll on September 4 there will be a shift towards the PQ and CAQ at the expense of the Liberals. That could leave the Liberals facing a wipe out similar to the one that swept away years of Liberal power in neighbouring Ontario in 1990. The increasingly bitter fight between the PQ and CAQ could benefit the Liberals by deflecting attention from their record. The spat between PQ Leader Marois and CAQ Leader Legault is personal - both are former ministers in the last PQ government - and this exchange of invective may well put voters off. Allied to that the PQ have worried anglophone and allophone voters with their policy on the french language.
With all this heat at the front of the contest perhaps the smaller parties will make an impact and end up holding the balance of power. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have picked up percentage points in the latest poll. The challenge to them is to keep momentum, be heard above the noise of the big parties and ultimately win a significant number of seats between them to provide bargaining options. There is unlikely to be a formal coalition though as Quebec Solidaire have ruled out a deal with the PQ while Option Nationale leader Jean-Martin Aussant is another former PQer and colleague of Marois who left and formed Option Nationale after disagreements with her leadership. He also has no love for CAQ and Legault whose politics he's described as 'populism of the worst kind'. Aussant has recently gained the support of former PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau who led the PQ during the last sovereignty referendum.
It's an interesting mix that will make for a tense last few days of campaigning.
More on Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale
Quebec Solidaire
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Qu%C3%A9bec%20solidaire%20optimistic/7136684/story.html
Option Nationale
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/08/17/jean-martin-aussant_n_1797536.html
If they do succeed then the march to a fresh referendum on Quebec independence will be started.
However there are a few days campaigning to go and with PQ sitting on 33% in the latest poll followed by the incumbent Liberals on 28% and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) on 27% there is all to play for.
Reports continue to say that Liberal Leader Jean Charest is vulnerable in his home riding. This may raise a question of whether the Liberals standing in the polls is higher than it will be on polling day?
Perhaps when Quebeckers go to the poll on September 4 there will be a shift towards the PQ and CAQ at the expense of the Liberals. That could leave the Liberals facing a wipe out similar to the one that swept away years of Liberal power in neighbouring Ontario in 1990. The increasingly bitter fight between the PQ and CAQ could benefit the Liberals by deflecting attention from their record. The spat between PQ Leader Marois and CAQ Leader Legault is personal - both are former ministers in the last PQ government - and this exchange of invective may well put voters off. Allied to that the PQ have worried anglophone and allophone voters with their policy on the french language.
With all this heat at the front of the contest perhaps the smaller parties will make an impact and end up holding the balance of power. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have picked up percentage points in the latest poll. The challenge to them is to keep momentum, be heard above the noise of the big parties and ultimately win a significant number of seats between them to provide bargaining options. There is unlikely to be a formal coalition though as Quebec Solidaire have ruled out a deal with the PQ while Option Nationale leader Jean-Martin Aussant is another former PQer and colleague of Marois who left and formed Option Nationale after disagreements with her leadership. He also has no love for CAQ and Legault whose politics he's described as 'populism of the worst kind'. Aussant has recently gained the support of former PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau who led the PQ during the last sovereignty referendum.
It's an interesting mix that will make for a tense last few days of campaigning.
More on Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale
Quebec Solidaire
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Qu%C3%A9bec%20solidaire%20optimistic/7136684/story.html
Option Nationale
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/08/17/jean-martin-aussant_n_1797536.html
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Parti Quebecois heading for minority government? Polls,predictions and social media in the Quebec Provincial Election 2012
Is the Quebec sovereignty question about to be reignited with a Parti Quebecois victory in Quebec's provincial elections? The answer is not clear at present. PQ Leader Pauline Marois made a plea at the weekend for an outright victory, saying a minority government would not allow the policies she stands for to be fully implemented. Code for a referendum on Quebec's future.
The polls are tight showing Marois's PQ ahead in the latest poll on 33% but with Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) rising to 28% (from 12% at the start of the campaign) and the incumbent Liberals sliding to 27%. So it's nip and tuck at the top and all to play for as the contest enters its final week.
It would appear that the final result is the PQ's to lose though most pollsters and commentators seems to think the PQ will emerge the biggest party and form a minority government perhaps with support from the sovereigntist and leftist Quebec Solidaire.
The PQ and the Liberals are the big beasts of Quebec elections with power switching between them regularly over the past few decades. The Liberals are in trouble with the taint of corruption over government contracts surrounding them. Their leader Jean Charest seems set to lose his riding (constituency). He’s a mercurial character who as a Federal Tory withstood the meltdown of Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives in 1993. Ironically that political abyss for the Conservatives came about in the wake of the failure of former PM Brian Mulroney’s Meech Lake agreement that saw a huge rise in nationalist support in Quebec with the Bloc Quebecois being formed to contest Federal Elections (indeed they did so well they formed the official opposition in Ottawa) and the return of Parti Quebecois to power in Quebec’s National Parliament and the subsequent sovereignty referendum of 1995.
Marois has declared that the PQ would seek a fresh referendum if successful on September 4th. That’s why she doesn’t want a minority government as it would weaken the mandate.
However given the circumstances of the election – the Liberals corruption allegations and the growth in support for Coalition Avenir Quebec who, though led by former PQ minister Francois Legault, have distanced themselves from the sovereignty question it may be that minority government is what Quebec faces come September 5th.
While a majority is what the PQ say they are looking for a period in minority may actually be the best option. Marois may do worse that share a conversation with Alex Salmond Scotland’s First Minister who lead the ScottishNational Party (SNP) to minority government in 2007 shelving a referendum on Scottish Independence on the way only to win an outright victory in 2011 embarking on a referendum campaign.
It could be that steady as she goes could be the best strategy for the PQ and they play the longer game gaining support of Quebecers whether Francophone, Anglophone or Allophone with competent government first then winning a majority to pursue an independent Quebec.
Social Media in the #Quebecelection
Everyone says social media is an important tool in elections these days and I've had a quick glance at the followers of the parties contesting the Quebec election.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the PQ top both the Facebook and Twitter counts with 62766 and 19093 respectively and surprisingly the Liberals on only 6253 FB and 10033 on twitter. CAQ come in on 8105 FB and 10998 twitter with the left/green/feminist Quebec Solidaire on an impressive 17343 FB and 19122 twitter.
The fledgling sovereigntist Option Nationale sit on 23454 FB and 11435 twitter with the Parti Vert du Quebec (Greens) on 1648 FB and 1979 twitter.
So perhaps no surprise PQ are solid front runners. The Liberals are out of favour so maybe that is reflected in their poor showing. The surprise is that CAQ are doing so poorly on social media despite the surge in support evident in the polls. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have impressive totals though neither seem to be on the verge of any real breakthough electorally according to the polls. Their social media presence could be down to the wave of student unrest in Quebec at present - something to do with student finance and tuition fees - that has not been handled well by either Charest, Legault or Marois.
Other coverage of the Quebec elections:
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/international/canada-provincial-victory-set-to-resurrect-quebec-independence-movement-1-2493422
http://news.nationalpost.com/tag/quebec-election-2012/
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/quebecvotes/index.html
http://leithnotes.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/does-victory-for-pq-signal-return-of.html
Other coverage of the Quebec elections:
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/international/canada-provincial-victory-set-to-resurrect-quebec-independence-movement-1-2493422
http://news.nationalpost.com/tag/quebec-election-2012/
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/quebecvotes/index.html
http://leithnotes.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/does-victory-for-pq-signal-return-of.html
Saturday, 23 June 2012
Does victory for the PQ signal the return of the Independence question for Quebec?
It's not been widely reported in Scotland but the Parti Quebecois won a spectacular by election victory in the past week which looks set to reignite the whole Quebec sovereignty debate. Referendum anyone?
The by election win in a Montreal seat held by the provincial Liberals for nearly 50 years has sent a warning to both Provincial Premier Jean Charest and to Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Charest's Liberals have been dogged by corruption issues and student unrest. Harpers Tories are a rump in Quebec. Not a good place for either of the big Canadian parties to be in if there is a surge in the Parti Quebecois vote and moves to call a fresh vote on Quebec sovereignty.
The federalists won the last referendum in 1995 by a narrow and disputed margin. Neither Liberals of Tories look to be in good shape to see off a resurgent sovereignty movement. That puts the Parti Quebecois in a strong position to win back power in the provincial assembly and then mount a fresh referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Was it significant that supporters of the victorious PQ candidate Roland Richer chanted 'we want a country'?
PQ Leader Pauline Marois said of the electors 'They said no to corruption, no to Liberal cynicism. They said yes to change, yes to hope. We will change the government, we will change direction - and we will change countries'.
The seriousness of the situation may be indicated by news the Prime Minister Stephen Harper has had meetings with both exPM Brian Mulroney and Quebec premier Jean Charest. Mulroney was PM during the ill-fated Meech Lake Agreement period which saw the Bloc Quebecois formed largely by disaffected Quebec tory MPs and the build up to the last referendum. As mentioned before Charest's Liberals run the province of Quebec and are currently mired in a construction contracts scandal that threatens their grasp of power. Interesting aside, Charest was Conservative MP, former Deputy Prime Minster of Canada in 1993 until the Tory meltdown in the General Election that year and then Leader of the rump Conservative party of Canada until 1998 when he switched to the Quebec Liberals becoming their Leader and subsequently Premier of Quebec in 2003. Mulroney and Charest have plenty of experience of taking on the PQ and of the last referendum - Mulroney represented a Quebec riding - and their views will no doubt be invaluable to Harper in his fight to keep Canada together.
With provincial elections due in 2013 the PQ can scent victory, a return to power and a mandate for sovereignty. The last referendum was contentious and close and it looks like the federalists are preparing to face up to a further test of Canada's unity.
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