Shacking up. Canada and Britain to share Embassies in the Brian Rix farce 'Better Together'

News came today of a frankly peculiar arrangement between the Conservative governments of Canada and Britain that will see them sharing consular addresses in certain countries.
This arrangement to co-locate consular services is all in the name of cost-cutting a beloved credo of conservative governments everywhere. What's not to like? You share a building with either your past colonial master or with a former dependency that is...well dependent again. It's like the teenage offspring that can't quite leave home.
The two Governments - Stephen Harper's Conservatives in Canada and David Cameron's ConservativeLibDems in Britain have warm words on the issue. Both countries 'share values'. That's ok then but wait a minute what are those values? Well there's the Queen and err...saving money.
Diplomacy is an important thing and keeping your independence in that diplomacy is surely the key thing. Kind of hard to keep some of your dealings confidential if another states consular staff see who's coming and going. Like many things in the respective governments recent actions there's a element of farce about this proposal.
In the past Britain refused the Hong Kong Chinese with British passports the right to reside in the UK while Canada welcomed them and benefited from their entrepreneurial drive.
It may be that with ideological driven right wing conservative governments in respective countries that this arrangement might work (if you overlook the absurdity of the premise) but what happens if and when the respective governments are of a differing hue? An indication has been given by the NDP opposition in Canada. Their foreign affairs spokesman Paul Dewar said 'I think it has a lot to do with the fact that this government is cutting severely on diplomacy'. Dewar also said ' We [Canada] shouldn't be a pawn in their [Britain's] diplomatic game.' This last comment a reference to the a view held on both sides of the Atlantic that the move is part of Britian's response to the EU's expansion of it's own diplomatic corps.
All in all it's an odd development and one that so far has given little detail. Much has been made on both sides of broadening diplomatic reach without without detail of where these new joint missions will be set up. Canada just closed its office in Iran so that's one country that won't be on the list and arguably a country in need of diplomacy.
What next? Where's the next saving to be made? Here's one. Harper is so taken with this new arrangement of master and servant that he does away with Canada's Maple Leaf Flag in favour of a return to the old red duster of Canada complete with its Union Jack. What about this Cameron loses the Scottish Independence Referendum and asks Harper for a new Union of 'shared values' - Better Together anyone? Only joking or you read it here first.

A rebirth for Fort Primary?

The news that steps are afoot to partially re-open Fort Primary School come as a welcome if not entirely unexpected surprise.
The pressures on surrounding primaries in the Leith area have necessitated this re-think with plans to look at opening a junior years primary. It should be said though that this could have been predicted. When I was local councillor for the Fort area I did warn the education officials and the then Children & Families Convener that pressures on surrounding primaries may lead to this situation. While I had concerns about the ability of Fort Primary to deliver a full curriculum to pupils with the low school roll that it had before closure I was mindful of the pressures not only on the intended receiving school - Trinity Primary but also on other schools in the Trinity cluster - Victoria and Wardie. That is why I argued right up to the decision  to close being taken that there should be a reprieve for Fort. I lost two internal votes at group meetings and abided by the group decision to proceed with closure. I did gain an assurance that as the Fort site would not be demolished or sold off it could be considered for re-opening should circumstances and demand for places  grow.
Indeed nursery provision at Fort has continued as neither Victoria or Trinity Primaries have nurseries attached and the Fort Community Wing has remained open as a community centre. A large part of the Fort campus has also provided much need temporary accommodation for Kaimes Primary Special School  following severe damage to the Kaimes building.
There are obvious benefits to the local communities in the areas of Fort (North Leith), Trinity and Newhaven if this proposal sees a rebirth of Fort Primary. Firstly it relieves very real pressure in early years in surrounding schools. Secondly if it operates as proposed as an early years junior school for the neighbouring schools in particular Trinity and Victoria then it could go a long way to breaking down the very real stigma that was attached to Fort Primary in the latter years of its previous existence. For that to be the case it is important that parents are fully involved in the plans for this new school to work co-operatively with the council to make it a success. Also with housing developments in Newhaven's Western Harbour increasingly attracting families and the redevelopment of the Fort House site right across from the school set to attract families too there is an opportunity for the wider locality to share in the rebirth. This plan in my view  deserves a fair wind and the support of the local community.
At a more strategic level questions need to be asked regarding the methodology used by the Children & Families department in predicting future intakes as from my experience and the experience, I'm sure, of many parents across the city there seems to be a problem that means that pressures are not predicted clearly enough. It is an inexact science given parental right to choose and people moving in and out of areas but there must be a better and more accurate way of planning for future accommodation needs than going through lengthy, painful and costly closure programmes only to rethink them in response to intake pressures so soon after closing a school.

PQ set for majority?

The latest polls in the increasingly bitter Quebec 2012 election show Parti Quebecois support holding up and suggests they may just achieve the majority they seek.
If they do succeed then the march to a fresh referendum on Quebec independence will be started.
However there are a few days campaigning to go and with PQ sitting on 33% in the latest poll followed by the incumbent Liberals on 28% and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) on 27% there is all to play for.
Reports continue to say that Liberal Leader Jean Charest is vulnerable in his home riding. This may raise a question of whether the Liberals standing in the polls is higher than it will be on polling day?
Perhaps when Quebeckers go to the poll on September 4 there will be a shift towards the PQ and CAQ at the expense of the Liberals. That could leave the Liberals facing a wipe out similar to the one that swept away years of Liberal power in neighbouring Ontario in 1990. The increasingly bitter fight between the PQ and CAQ could benefit the Liberals by deflecting attention from their record. The spat between PQ Leader Marois and CAQ Leader Legault is personal - both are former ministers in the last PQ government - and this exchange of invective may well put voters off. Allied to that the PQ have worried anglophone and allophone voters with their policy on the french language.
With all this heat at the front of the contest perhaps the smaller parties will make an impact and end up holding the balance of power. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale  have picked up percentage points in the latest poll. The challenge to them is to keep momentum, be heard above the noise of the big parties and ultimately win a significant number of seats between them to provide bargaining options. There is unlikely to be a formal coalition though as Quebec Solidaire have ruled out a deal with the PQ while Option Nationale leader Jean-Martin Aussant is another former PQer and colleague of Marois who left and formed Option Nationale after disagreements with her leadership. He also has no love for CAQ and Legault whose politics he's described as 'populism of the worst kind'. Aussant has recently gained the support of former PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau who led the PQ during the last sovereignty referendum.
It's an interesting mix that will make for a tense last few days of campaigning.

More on Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale
Quebec Solidaire
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Qu%C3%A9bec%20solidaire%20optimistic/7136684/story.html
Option Nationale
 http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/08/17/jean-martin-aussant_n_1797536.html

Parti Quebecois heading for minority government? Polls,predictions and social media in the Quebec Provincial Election 2012

 Is the Quebec sovereignty question about to be reignited with a Parti Quebecois victory in Quebec's provincial elections? The answer is not clear at present. PQ Leader Pauline Marois made a plea at the weekend for an outright victory, saying a minority government would not allow the policies she stands for to be fully implemented. Code for a referendum on Quebec's future.

The polls are tight showing Marois's PQ ahead in the latest poll on 33% but with Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) rising to 28% (from 12% at the start of the campaign) and the incumbent Liberals sliding to 27%. So it's nip and tuck at the top and all to play for as the contest enters its final week.

It would appear that the final result is the PQ's to lose though most pollsters and commentators seems to think the PQ will emerge the biggest party and form a minority government perhaps with support from the sovereigntist and leftist Quebec Solidaire.  

The PQ and the Liberals are the big beasts of Quebec elections with power switching between them regularly over the past few decades. The Liberals are in trouble with the taint of corruption over government contracts surrounding them. Their leader Jean Charest seems set to lose his riding (constituency). He’s a mercurial character who as a Federal Tory withstood the meltdown of Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives in 1993. Ironically that political abyss for the Conservatives came about in the wake of the failure of former PM Brian Mulroney’s Meech Lake agreement that saw a huge rise in nationalist support in Quebec with the Bloc Quebecois being formed to contest Federal Elections (indeed they did so well they formed the official opposition in Ottawa) and the return of Parti Quebecois to power in Quebec’s National Parliament and the subsequent sovereignty referendum of 1995.

Marois has declared that the PQ would seek a fresh referendum if successful on September 4^th. That’s why she doesn’t want a minority government as it would weaken the mandate.

However given the circumstances of the election – the Liberals corruption allegations and the growth in support for Coalition Avenir Quebec who, though led by former PQ minister Francois Legault, have distanced themselves from the sovereignty question it may be that minority government is what Quebec faces come September 5th.

While a majority is what the PQ say they are looking for a period in minority may actually be the best option. Marois  may do worse that share a conversation with Alex Salmond Scotland’s First Minister who lead the ScottishNational Party (SNP) to minority government in 2007 shelving a referendum on Scottish Independence on the way only to win an outright victory in 2011 embarking on a referendum campaign.

It could be that steady as she goes could be the best strategy for the PQ and they play the longer game gaining support of Quebecers whether Francophone, Anglophone or Allophone with competent government first then winning a majority to pursue an independent Quebec. 

Social Media in the #Quebecelection

Everyone says social media is an important tool in elections these days and I've had a quick glance at the followers of the parties contesting the Quebec election.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the PQ top both the Facebook and Twitter counts with 62766 and 19093 respectively and surprisingly the Liberals on only 6253 FB and 10033 on twitter. CAQ come in on 8105 FB and 10998 twitter with the left/green/feminist Quebec Solidaire on an impressive 17343 FB and 19122 twitter.

The fledgling sovereigntist Option Nationale sit on 23454 FB and 11435 twitter with the Parti Vert du Quebec (Greens) on 1648 FB and 1979 twitter.

So perhaps no surprise PQ are solid front runners. The Liberals are out of favour so maybe that is reflected in their poor showing. The surprise is that CAQ are doing so poorly on social media despite the surge in support evident in the polls. Both Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have impressive totals though neither seem to be on the verge of any real breakthough electorally according to the polls. Their social media presence could be down to the wave of student unrest in Quebec at present - something to do with student finance and tuition fees - that has not been handled well by either Charest, Legault or Marois. 

Other coverage of the Quebec elections:
http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/international/canada-provincial-victory-set-to-resurrect-quebec-independence-movement-1-2493422

http://news.nationalpost.com/tag/quebec-election-2012/

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/quebecvotes/index.html

http://leithnotes.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/does-victory-for-pq-signal-return-of.html

Persevere - Leith's Coat of Arms returns after 90 Years

Ninety two years after Leith was merged with Edinburgh the proud burgh is set to officially regain its historic coat of arms.

At a bestowal ceremony tomorrow at Leith Library the 'Armorial Bearings' of Leith will be presented to the Leith Neighbourhood Partnership following a campaign to reclaim this iconic part of Leith's history.

The picture above shows the recently erected flag pole on Leith Library (itself celebrating it's 80th birthday this week) which tomorrow will see a flag bearing the burgh's armorial bearings raised to officially conclude the first part of the campaign to see this symbol of Leith used more widely and correctly in the community.

The idea of reclaiming the coat of arms has been kicking about for a number of years. The guerilla action of erecting a 'Welcome to Leith' sign which bears a version of the coat of arms was a part of that. More recently when Leith Academy (which has it's own coat of arms) celebrated its 450th Anniversary two years ago pupils raised a petition calling on steps to be taken to return the coat of arms of Leith to the community. The petition was presented to me when I held the posts of Deputy Lord Provost of Edinburgh and Leith Councillor. Support was sought from the City of Edinburgh Council and the Lord Lyon (who's job it is to care for and oversee the use of all things heraldic in Scotland) was approached. When Leith had been absorbed the City Council had not taken over the arms and they had therefore come into the care of the Lord Lyon. In order to reclaim them a petition would have to be raised to the Court of the Lord Lyon. 

After discussion it was decided that the appropriate body to apply for the return of the arms would be Leith Neighbourhood Partnership which covers the Leith & Leith Walk Council wards and involves the three Leith Community Councils in its work. As it happens members of the Leith Neighbourhood Partnership had been underwhelmed by the bland logo they had and the ability to use the historic coat of arms was one that was compelling. 

So to conclude tomorrow will mark the end of that chapter - the regaining of the coat of arms. It will no doubt see that start of a new chapter as with the introduction of the flag it is hoped that other buildings will soon be able to fly the flag and proudly display the historic symbol of Leith. 

Rob Munn was Deputy Lord Provost of Edinburgh 2007-2012, Councillor for Leith ward 2007-2012 and Councillor for Leith Harbour ward 1996-2003.

Does victory for the PQ signal the return of the Independence question for Quebec?

It's not been widely reported in Scotland but the Parti Quebecois won a spectacular by election victory in the past week which looks set to reignite the whole Quebec sovereignty debate. Referendum anyone?

The by election win in a Montreal seat held by the provincial Liberals for nearly 50 years has sent a warning to both  Provincial Premier Jean Charest and to Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Charest's Liberals have been dogged by corruption issues and student unrest. Harpers Tories are a rump in Quebec. Not a good place for either of the big Canadian parties to be in if there is a surge in the Parti Quebecois vote and moves to call a fresh vote on Quebec sovereignty.

The federalists won the last referendum in 1995 by a narrow and disputed margin. Neither Liberals of Tories look to be in good shape to see off a resurgent sovereignty movement. That puts the Parti Quebecois in a strong position to win back power in the provincial assembly and then mount a fresh referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Was it significant that supporters of the victorious PQ candidate Roland Richer chanted 'we want a country'?

PQ Leader Pauline Marois said of the electors 'They said no to corruption, no to Liberal cynicism. They said yes to change, yes to hope. We will change the government, we will change direction - and we will change countries'.

The seriousness of the situation may be indicated by news the Prime Minister Stephen Harper has had meetings with both exPM Brian Mulroney and Quebec premier Jean Charest. Mulroney was PM during the ill-fated Meech Lake Agreement period which saw the Bloc Quebecois formed largely by disaffected Quebec tory MPs and the build up to the last referendum. As mentioned before Charest's Liberals run the province of Quebec and are currently mired in a construction contracts scandal that threatens their grasp of power. Interesting aside, Charest was Conservative MP, former Deputy Prime Minster of Canada in 1993 until the Tory meltdown in the General Election that year and then Leader of the rump Conservative party of Canada  until 1998 when he switched to the Quebec Liberals becoming their Leader and subsequently Premier of Quebec in 2003. Mulroney and Charest have plenty of experience of taking on the PQ and of the  last referendum - Mulroney represented a Quebec riding - and their views will no doubt be invaluable to Harper in his fight to keep Canada together.

With provincial elections due in 2013 the PQ can scent victory, a return to power and a mandate for sovereignty. The last referendum was contentious and close and it looks like the federalists are preparing to face up to a further test of Canada's unity.

Can the Scottish Independence Referendum refresh the parts other political campaigns can’t reach?

The long haul of campaigning has begun in the Scottish Independence referendum. The YES campaign will be holding street stalls throughout Scotland over the coming weekend asking people to sign the YES Declaration. Alasdair Darling ups the negative anti of the No campaign (ok,ok I know it’s not ‘called’ the No campaign but the allegedly cuddly Better Together) by criticising the SNP currency union position.

The question though that interests me is, putting aside the political personalities at the head of each campaign, how will the debate and campaign reach out to the wider public? Will it reach those parts of the electorate that generally do not participate in the regular electoral process? And if it does will it refresh the parts other political campaigns can't reach?

The SNP cite evidence from the Quebec referendum to show turnout (1995 94%, 1980 85%) for that plebiscite was considerably higher than what was normal for both Quebec provincial (56.5% in 2008 Provincial elections) or Canadian Federal elections (Quebec 73% in 1997 Federal General Election). That suggests that the referendum campaigns both for and against motivated Quebeckers not normally engaged in politics. As an aside it suggests that people can engage with a constitutional question more easily than with a choice based on policy options put forward by differing political parties.

What form will that campaign to engage, communicate and motivate the usually vote shy electorate take? The SNP successfully used their Activate voter identification system to win a historic majority in 2011 and the YES Campaign uses the appropriately named NationBuilder.com platform to build a database of supporters, volunteers and funders. Lessons have been learned from US political campaigns from Howard Dean to Barack Obama.  The No campaigners are to use another US developed online campaign platform - Blue State Digital - to build their campaign.

In this digital age with print media – newspapers – declining daily in their influence and reach online campaigning is the way to go particularly to engage with the mass of voters. However there are the digitally excluded and this is where it is likely to get interesting. With the YES campaign already embarking on a series of ‘street-stalls’ across our communities from Portsoy to Chesser (there were stalls at both the Leith Gala and the Meadows Festival) this essential face-to-face engagement has started. I’m sure that at these stalls people will pitch up sign the declaration and then tell campaigners that they have not voted before ever. They will be the tip of the iceberg. Behind them will be the 50% or so who habitually don’t vote and not necessarily for any political reason.  They just don’t vote. They may sign up as a supporter of the Yes or the No campaigns but will they actually vote when 14 October 2014 comes round? The answer to this is unknown and will to some extent rely on two things 1) The media campaign and how that penetrates the world view of those generally disengaged citizens 2) The quality of the engagement and communication that the campaigns extend to individual citizens and in particular hard to motivate citizens and communities.

Now political anoraks who are signed up to the ‘scientific’ campaign model will know that political parties maintain campaign databases that tell them not only voting intentions gleaned from door to door and telephone canvassing along with survey returns but also who has voted in particular elections (note: but not how they voted). Through use of all this data targeting of campaigning is developed and used often with success. One concern that I’ve always had, while understanding the power and efficacy of targeting messages and resources, is that habitual non-voters are often excluded from campaigns and therefore part of the political process. It then becomes an electoral and participative vicious circle. Apart from a mass leaflet (and sometimes they won’t even get them!) these electors are largely excluded from campaigns. They are unlikely to ever see a political canvasser or candidate at their door as they are seen as hard work to engage and motivate. Political parties focus more attention on voters and areas where citizens are more attentive to their ‘democratic duty’. 

While to some extent it is almost understandable that political parties act in such a manner when campaigning – they generally have limited finance for local campaigns (and there are limits on election spending which is a factor in campaign strategies) along with that they have only so many activists to get out there on the doors.

The kind of campaigning that could and should develop as we see the referendum campaign roll out has the opportunity to break out of the norms of electoral campaigning logic. As stated above the appearance of YES campaign ‘street stalls’ could be an early indication of that. Their purpose of recruiting supporters and opening dialogue with citizens on the issue is reminiscent of the Anti-Poll-Tax stalls I cut my political teeth on – while those had an aim in gathering signatures of those opposing the tax they also formed a bridge between the political activist and the citizen in opening a dialogue and from that engagement.  Similar activity and engagement occurred during the 1997 YES/YES campaign for a Scottish Parliament. However the turnout in that referendum was not high, suggesting that the political parties did not really move out of their usual campaigning modes.  I do remember as part of the local cross party Scotland Forward group a Labour activist declaring that they would struggle to work Granton and Pilton and could the SNP help out there. Needless to say Labour managed Trinity and Broughton. I have no criticism of Labour over this admission but it serves of an illustration of how some areas can become excluded. 

Another issue to be tackled by the campaigners will be pockets of residents not registered for the vote. There has been a growing trend in non-registration in recent years and it is unclear whether steps like individual registration will make any change in this trend – my view is that it won’t.  

What plans beyond ‘street stalls’ do campaigners have to reach out into communities dominated by the disengaged? Will these electors become engaged in this campaign? Will they cast their vote in 2014 one way or another? Will there be a surge in registration of voters?  These are challenges to the campaigns on both sides of the argument to show that on this issue, which both sides agree is important and will change Scotland forever, they have the will and ability to reach out, engage with and motivate this section of the public. There could be a bonus for the body politic if they do.

Rob Munn has been a political activist since 1986 (do the maths!), a candidate in Council and Parlaimentary campaigns, a campaign organiser and has been a Councillor for Leith 1996-2003 & 2007-2012.